Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646f5ad9f8c9d5ba12eb84706f91d9bf5f7a9470edb413d6ef7871798c3aef57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 6,089$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 3c | 515.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 332.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 289.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 77c | 283.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 230.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 77c | 188.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 55c | 165.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 20c | 153.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 145.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 119.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 30c | 113.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 20c | 111.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 110.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…1ed9backed Yes | 17c | 108.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 100.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 98.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 97.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 14c | 94.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 70c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 91.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 90.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 17c | 87.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 15c | 87.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 16c | 85.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 83.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 79.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 18c | 77.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 75.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…5448backed Yes | 47c | 71.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 62c | 70.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 70.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed Yes | 20c | 70.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 69.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 67.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 61.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 23c | 55.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 58c | 49.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 39.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 33.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 78c | 31.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 28.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed No | 40c | 27.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 63c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 48c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 21.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 74c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…6637backed No | 76c | 13.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.