Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a95b90bcbf8c216631c84a97550af074f5801415f182b1b48d196adf723e7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d83…1cefbacked Yes | 4c | 662.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 526.91$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 383.53$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 64c | 377.89$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 78c | 376.27$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.43 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…f441backed Yes | 4c | 365.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 68c | 294.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 75c | 279.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 61c | 278.56$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…1ed9backed No | 24c | 261.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 250.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 70c | 183.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 44c | 180.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 27c | 177.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.41 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 165.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 30c | 157.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 149.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 43c | 149.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 22c | 144.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed Yes | 78c | 137.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 72c | 135.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 21c | 135.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 77c | 124.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c6…40babacked Yes | 20c | 120.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 77c | 120.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 36c | 119.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 115.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 70c | 111.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 30c | 108.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 78c | 105.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…8da8backed No | 45c | 103.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…6c30backed No | 24c | 102.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 100.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 99.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 80c | 95.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed No | 58c | 94.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 70c | 94.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 79c | 92.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 40c | 91.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 42c | 90.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 77c | 88.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 78c | 87.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 32c | 87.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 37c | 84.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 77c | 82.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 21c | 82.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 79.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 54c | 77.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 22c | 76.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 52c | 76.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 74.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 72.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 68.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 31c | 62.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 79c | 61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 26c | 57.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed No | 30c | 56.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 18c | 55.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 38c | 55.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…3ae8backed Yes | 39c | 53.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked No | 30c | 53.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 79c | 53.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 21c | 51.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 24c | 51.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 48.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 24c | 48.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 38c | 48.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 27c | 47.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed Yes | 60c | 47.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked Yes | 74c | 46.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked Yes | 78c | 45.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed No | 57c | 43.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 47c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…0866backed Yes | 80c | 41.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 63c | 41.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 40.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3895…7332backed Yes | 73c | 37.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…d3fbbacked Yes | 68c | 36.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 64c | 36.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 53c | 35.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 58c | 30.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 62c | 30.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.