Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64763eec368fdf04d3bed4e32eee4f7c1effca06e00ec3473b5fdd3dd04bd4ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91e3…23bfbacked Over | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,263.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 57c | 646.77$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Over | 46c | 532.18$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 52c | 523.45$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…0539backed Over | 44c | 392.88$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…7649backed Over | 48c | 251$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 55c | 226.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 50c | 60.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…861bbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Game Handicap: Xtreme (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Xtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.