Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6490e27ef5199264a30d7f8045ab4db48938a717ce47cea588b6e3aa3fbcbea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 78c | 1,025$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.55 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 37c | 568.86$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 22c | 411.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 351.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 350$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 275.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 271.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 37c | 253.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 241.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 21c | 189.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 156.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 149.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 34c | 131.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 40c | 125.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 117.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 71c | 113.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 95.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 90.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 85.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 80.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 77.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…37cabacked No | 67c | 71.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 66.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 38c | 61.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 38c | 46.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 62c | 46.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 62c | 43.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 47c | 40.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 62c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 39.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 38c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 32.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 76c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 31.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 30.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 64c | 29.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…2ab1backed No | 79c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 80c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.