Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960075817ce567edeeedcf9e5bd970edf18da3855f22362f0e8fce5dc47d9ea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 4c | 978.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 27c | 638.57$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 37c | 508.74$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.42 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 25c | 444.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 72c | 372.09$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 350.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 323$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 276.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 244.36$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 51c | 212.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 184.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 180.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 48c | 179.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 28c | 162.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 40c | 143.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 132.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 76c | 129.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 60c | 121.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 62c | 121.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 120.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 57c | 106.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 103.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…2ab1backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 76.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 75.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…5c5ebacked No | 66c | 75.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 78c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 69.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 65.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed No | 78c | 64.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 62.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 38c | 60.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 59.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed Yes | 31c | 59.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 57.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 56.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 54.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 56c | 53.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 49.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 50c | 47.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 50c | 47.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 76c | 46.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 45.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…12efbacked Yes | 61c | 41.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 39.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 40c | 35.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 68c | 35.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 57c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 35c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 68c | 28.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 60c | 28.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed No | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…5d00backed Yes | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 62c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.