TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,142
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,142 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes4c978.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.871225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes27c638.57$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9314626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Yes2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes37c508.74$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4225933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked Yes25c444.57$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2420342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked No72c372.09$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c350.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes15c323$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.856219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes25c276.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.545,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No77c244.36$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes51c212.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5235233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c184.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.494,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No54c180.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6529751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes48c179.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3413448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes28c162.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2128142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes40c143.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.816626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c132.61$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2006…7e1bbacked No76c129.09$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.982236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes60c121.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes62c121.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.413246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c120.32$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c7…4399backed Yes57c106.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.313560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No40c103.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec83…7014backed Yes60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c78…2ab1backed Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes24c79.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No66c76.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.969553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No66c75.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.589753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd863…5c5ebacked No66c75.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No78c70.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5162770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c69.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.752,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No74c65.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1120266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85a6…bb90backed No78c64.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No67c62.71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5946444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb14c…4231backed Yes38c60.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No50c59.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.822,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Yes31c59.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes50c57.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4940935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No76c56.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.841,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c54.58$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.142,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No56c53.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3452322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.379,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c49.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No50c47.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.394170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes50c47.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5418368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x05ae…7bc6backed No76c46.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.394761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes32c45.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c45.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d22…245cbacked Yes26c45.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.86026.7%16 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c44.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.432,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7012…12efbacked Yes61c41.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7393734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c39.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes38c37.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.072744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8b…612fbacked No40c35.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.582982.8%24 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No68c35.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1811977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc72…ad49backed Yes57c33.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1411565.2%75 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No79c31.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6881756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes47c31.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.883336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…8ef6backed Yes55c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.492650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2189…13f1backed Yes35c29.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.333444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No68c28.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1820353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes60c28.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.061,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x747a…f334backed No40c28.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.923661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No38c27.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.222,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc25e…5d00backed Yes57c26.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.871338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c24.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No79c24.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.219772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c24.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.624,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No69c21.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5353547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No62c19.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.375766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf9…5211backed Yes65c19.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.557065.7%46 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No69c16.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2550261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.