NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a7caab66b68cd3377e788730899dee2d54a34a9f518c7e7bfd2500628171a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,408 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.99 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 52c | 2,502$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.96 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 2,405$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.35 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 47c | 2,064$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Under | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 54c | 1,038$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 679.96$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.98 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 37c | 603.43$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 53c | 509.43$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.43 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…3f4bbacked Under | 70c | 342.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 53c | 263.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 53c | 132.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 78.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 36c | 58.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 58.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 56c | 52.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 51.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 47c | 39.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 33.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 56c | 30.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 51c | 30.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 56c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 56c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 49c | 20.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Blues vs. SharksBlues won
- Blues vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blues vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.