Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b5a065c229b7764914bd497632a24f5ed39208ed87f79f4a83e90cc0e6c448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 2,933$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.22 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 36c | 2,352$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.64 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 1,324$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.65 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 440$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 26c | 358.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Over | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 36c | 127.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 64c | 58.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8da…9311backed Over | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd560…ee17backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 65c | 38.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…25fdbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5this page
- AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.