Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b9220fec4f75ee79de52844f3fe18bd450a70f6f5b6e1c58485d902a25d6d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,022$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 347$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 346.45$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 265.01$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 258.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 233.62$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 71c | 193.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 43c | 180.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 48c | 139.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 60c | 126.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 123.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 118.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 111.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 110.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 76c | 100.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 91.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 80.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 52c | 69.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 62.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 52c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 53c | 56.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 54.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 42c | 52.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 52c | 47.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 51c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 39.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 36.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 33.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…14f4backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 25.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 24.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 52c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 52c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 66c | 23.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 47c | 22.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.