Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ba916ef4eebfe5188f1eb29fe29991f6eb3aeae66916b6e18438be8b489159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc431…1c9cbacked Yes | 76c | 673.65$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 4c | 495.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 32c | 448.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed No | 17c | 403.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…336ebacked No | 62c | 334.47$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 55c | 299.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed Yes | 56c | 283.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 71c | 281.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 255.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ec…083dbacked Yes | 62c | 109.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…0797backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 32c | 98.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 37c | 67.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…3481backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 45c | 50.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7390backed Yes | 32c | 47.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6b…f308backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 33c | 30.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 37c | 27.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…b3b9backed Yes | 56c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…f1afbacked Yes | 47c | 23.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 85°F or higher on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.