College Football · resolved market
Will Iowa beat Iowa State?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64bc26283b89e6131aa6492e412566b158722a6c5dad24e83fac43bf023568c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stof Iowa, Iowa St
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Iowa | 58c | 19,280$11,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,230.42 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Iowa St | 42c | 18,903$7,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,041.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Iowa St | 29c | 8,919$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,291.14 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc34…ff67backed Iowa | 72c | 7,128$5,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,137.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Iowa St | 27c | 4,550$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337.69 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Iowa St | 9c | 4,156$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,788.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 36cpaid | +284.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Iowa | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Iowa | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ee8ebacked Iowa St | 73c | 2,108$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Iowa St | 42c | 1,530$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.39 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Iowa St | 10c | 1,185$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Iowa | 60c | 994.16$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.5 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Iowa St | 34c | 820$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Iowa St | 44c | 736.98$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.71 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Iowa | 60c | 593.42$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Iowa | 69c | 550$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Iowa | 57c | 396.55$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Iowa St | 42c | 333.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.33 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…5692backed Iowa | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Iowa St | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Iowa | 59c | 177.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Iowa | 57c | 177$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Iowa | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Iowa | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Iowa | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Iowa St | 34c | 138$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Iowa St | 38c | 128.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Iowa | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Iowa | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Iowa | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…f001backed Iowa | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Iowa St | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…cf71backed Iowa | 58c | 41.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed Iowa St | 39c | 38.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…53fcbacked Iowa | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Iowa | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iowa beat Iowa State?this page
- Will Iowa win by 4 or more points?No won
- Will there be 36 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.