NFL · resolved market
Spread: NYG (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c8fc9734dc14485fc8008e585f95c1ee00d7a4cf0e28ed178357e5ec480e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NYGof NYG, MIA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed NYG | 50c | 9,293$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.6 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed MIA | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed MIA | 50c | 3,351$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.87 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked MIA | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed MIA | 50c | 1,395$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked MIA | 25c | 1,217$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed MIA | 50c | 973.2$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.6 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NYG | 50c | 915$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked NYG | 75c | 801.24$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.31 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NYG | 78c | 457$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed NYG | 51c | 273.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed MIA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked NYG | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked NYG | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NYG | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed NYG | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed NYG | 49c | 53.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed MIA | 51c | 51.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked NYG | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed NYG | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: NYG (-3.5)this page
- Giants vs. DolphinsGiants won
- NYG vs. MIA: O/U 36.5Under won
- NYG vs. MIA: O/U 37.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.