Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x650119355abedad852e192af9d1a4076d4fe7eb71fb87fe3ea97391810fe1e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,090 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,175$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 617.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 524.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 24c | 497.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 456.59$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 24c | 448.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a9cebacked Yes | 26c | 345.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 11c | 319.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…de5abacked Yes | 5c | 314.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 275$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 267.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed Yes | 18c | 177.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 174.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 144.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 118.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 116.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 103.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 29c | 100.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 73c | 100.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 79c | 95.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 81.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 24c | 81.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 80.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 69c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…e601backed Yes | 25c | 79.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 76.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 28c | 73.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 17c | 58.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 39.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 71c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 26.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…1499backed No | 74c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 78c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.