Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4434c546bcc8f0c8e69da0b36a980a7fe6a083173684f853b9c1664e6efd21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,766 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 70c | 1,637$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.01 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 37c | 650.91$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 8c | 574.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 569.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 551.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 406.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 332.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.25 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 8c | 287.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 280$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 267.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 72c | 262.34$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 222.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 29c | 219.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 13c | 209.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 65c | 194.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 34c | 184$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 37c | 178.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 57c | 176.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 145.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 10c | 122.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 22c | 122.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 114.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 107.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 104.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 73c | 98.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 77c | 91.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 15c | 90.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 41c | 85.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 77.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 63.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 72c | 55.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 72c | 54.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 24c | 50.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 36c | 46.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 32c | 37.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 68c | 37.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 73c | 31.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 29.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 72c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed No | 80c | 24.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 50c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 66c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.