Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02a2a35ceebec2c9854ad595e1cc2b5611c40f8a945d6d76e1f4109338f7b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,155 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 645.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 8c | 561.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.83 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 559$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 6c | 544.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.84 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 13c | 408.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.97 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 46c | 398.06$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 9c | 357.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 34c | 338.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 336.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.92 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 237.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 169.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 7c | 166.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.97 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 8c | 138.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 19c | 130.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 118.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 105.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…ffc6backed Yes | 11c | 104.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 38c | 94.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227b…549abacked Yes | 32c | 68.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 19c | 60.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 21c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 65c | 39.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 47c | 31.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf2…6a36backed Yes | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 28.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 49c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 17.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.