Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x650129e79bf44bc117866ce0e196cea4e7002a9354baaf67223893cb26284ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Under | 43c | 3,298$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Over | 58c | 861.08$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 732.41$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.63 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 42c | 640.61$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.56 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 542$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 58c | 540.1$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.16 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 42c | 508.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 57c | 473.68$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Over | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 46c | 256.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 233.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 44c | 227.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…ea61backed Over | 58c | 201.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 52c | 168.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462b…320dbacked Over | 38c | 147.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 48c | 137$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 100.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 33c | 97.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 58c | 96.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Under | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 43c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 67.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 37c | 61.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 57c | 61.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 61.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 47.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 50c | 43.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 55c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…dcaabacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 57c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.