Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8295e18973d94a9bd7532dbaca4907d0bf0b8e7e965c162b23b2c9ade5da9f84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,420$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 25c | 1,061$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 829.28$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.45 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 65c | 385.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 70c | 333.32$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Over | 32c | 327.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 30c | 297.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 73c | 274$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 66c | 80.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 53.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 65c | 40.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…1361backed Over | 35c | 40.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…5526backed Over | 31c | 34.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…8051backed Over | 33c | 32.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 33c | 31.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…6ca4backed Over | 33c | 30.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…73a2backed Under | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…814abacked Under | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa375…74e8backed Under | 69c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…7b72backed Under | 69c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…87bfbacked Under | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…53dbbacked Under | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5this page
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.