Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ab8dd4edc47ab3b2e158dca1a1ed3128adb61227b7cf27f79ce18909edd963f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 4,376$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.56 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 20c | 1,188$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.76 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 993.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.4 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 714.96$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.12 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 23c | 600.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.68 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 76c | 416.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 15c | 197.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 21c | 179$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 32c | 92.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 90.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…becbbacked Under | 21c | 78.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +110%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 79c | 76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 68.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 59.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Over | 69c | 38.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 79c | 36.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 39c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…7e14backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…f9adbacked Under | 68c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 79c | 15.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.