Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651fb68fd7c68cf4d887541de89b50ac32f8cff3dd6f827b4c560ac44f800638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 21c | 1,250$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,240$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.43 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 19c | 786.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 608.03$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…3348backed Over | 26c | 304$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…1e6dbacked Under | 74c | 304$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 22c | 281.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 153.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 149.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 78c | 35.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 78c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 79c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 79c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.