Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe30873e8693f15136857101a6e9a81bcc915e85564be427239fc0c688364e7c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,095 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 22,248$15,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,253.49 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 21c | 13,000$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.46 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 37c | 5,766$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.73 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 4,396$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.06 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed Over | 46c | 3,400$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 1,249$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 650.79$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Over | 52c | 449.6$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 420.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 320.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 45c | 220.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 63c | 200.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 197.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 140.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 137.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 75c | 125.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked Under | 80c | 116.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 24c | 111.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 104.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over | 58c | 81.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 74c | 80.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 22c | 79.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 54c | 78.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 36c | 78.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 31c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…57a4backed Over | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 23c | 51.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 63c | 41.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 36.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 38c | 35.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 51c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 63c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.