Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01417dfa9fd815ed6acb53b1fa651e343420193532cde7d269f9d9665730a953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,531 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,629$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.52 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 54c | 1,878$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 42c | 865$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.54 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 50c | 591.76$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 19c | 516.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 78c | 470.51$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 54c | 411.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.11 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 50c | 409.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 365.49$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 34c | 335.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2346backed Over | 40c | 288$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 57c | 234$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 80c | 213.75$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…95d1backed Over | 54c | 146.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…5eadbacked Over | 54c | 137.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 86.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…25a5backed Under | 45c | 83.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 50c | 78.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed Over | 54c | 73.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 47c | 49.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 47c | 49.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 49.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 78c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 58c | 32.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked Over | 69c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 43c | 24.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 46c | 22.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 71c | 14.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.