Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Wang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65239a76f27b3a9e357c1ed7c3426e8833201e4633a99e71722d9ebbdd4b5c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Keys, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Wang | 47c | 3,870$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.68 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Keys | 52c | 1,922$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.49 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Keys | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594 | 545 | 41.7%227 W · 318 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Wang | 36c | 274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Wang | 71c | 265.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Keys | 74c | 249.39$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Keys | 40c | 189.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Wang | 36c | 150.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Wang | 35c | 137.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…a827backed Keys | 51c | 124.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Keys | 68c | 121.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Keys | 67c | 112$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Wang | 47c | 101.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Keys | 62c | 62.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Keys | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Wang | 37c | 48.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Wang | 28c | 48.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wang | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Keys | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Wangthis page
- Cincinnati Open: Madison Keys vs Xiyu WangMadison Keys won
- Set 2 Winner: Keys vs WangKeys won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)Keys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.