South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653bbdb9313d911d165afeb141788e9c489688b1f206287e8269b8b77fc9b6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 52c | 5,620$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,947.58 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,258$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.03 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 62c | 1,379$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 1,376$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.23 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 52c | 901.25$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.91 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 73c | 648.98$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 2c | 450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 64c | 340$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.15 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 16c | 287.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 29c | 285$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.04 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 20c | 169.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…9fe0backed Yes | 74c | 135.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 126.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 54c | 113.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 27c | 103.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 56c | 99.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 70c | 97.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 12c | 94.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 66c | 75.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 16c | 63.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Yes | 60c | 61.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 50.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 42c | 39.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 40c | 29.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…c20ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…d26ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-13?No won
- Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.