South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65472b248abccd912a8655f2c0bc370aaf91d3b1973ccbd88d282ecb799da3e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 7,266$5,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.63 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 5,328$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,699$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.74 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 1,198$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 80c | 902.61$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 641$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 24c | 517.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 21c | 294.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 274.24$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 22c | 265.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Yes | 22c | 136.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7391…5375backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 19c | 58.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 22c | 55.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 38.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked No | 80c | 29.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 79c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 79c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab5…95fabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.