Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654f90be376a5f7bf4d92fb010f7fd546871e20994eed2c277fbf5fb350cb7d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida State Seminolesof Florida State Seminoles, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,810 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 3,342$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked California Golden Bears | 53c | 3,297$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.65 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 541.67$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked California Golden Bears | 35c | 496.02$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Florida State Seminoles | 67c | 492.58$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 330.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Florida State Seminoles | 66c | 293.21$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 40c | 279.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 46c | 212.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked California Golden Bears | 54c | 211.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Florida State Seminoles | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed California Golden Bears | 21c | 199.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…4c18backed California Golden Bears | 57c | 174.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked California Golden Bears | 54c | 162.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed California Golden Bears | 54c | 147.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked California Golden Bears | 54c | 134.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed California Golden Bears | 56c | 123.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Florida State Seminoles | 59c | 115.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Florida State Seminoles | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 110.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Florida State Seminoles | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Florida State Seminoles | 46c | 104.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed California Golden Bears | 54c | 82.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Florida State Seminoles | 71c | 77.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Florida State Seminoles | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Florida State Seminoles | 49c | 40.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Florida State Seminoles | 49c | 40.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Florida State Seminoles | 69c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…ded5backed Florida State Seminoles | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Florida State Seminoles | 57c | 31.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed California Golden Bears | 54c | 30.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed California Golden Bears | 57c | 30.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Florida State Seminoles | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed California Golden Bears | 54c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-4.5)this page
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State SeminolesFlorida State Seminoles won
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 152.5Over won
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-3.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.