Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 152.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde020c875c5bcd3855582922b4bcd3124f6f6af509a53f988a485e9c2013b68a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,868 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,226$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.7 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 54c | 2,148$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.22 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 992.84$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 267.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 45c | 258.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 254.48$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 218.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 55c | 215.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 46c | 202.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 146.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 133$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 56c | 90.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 45c | 85.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 79.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 46c | 71.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 57c | 66.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 58.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 46c | 53.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 48.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Over | 52c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Over | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4360…6df8backed Under | 50c | 20.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 152.5this page
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State SeminolesFlorida State Seminoles won
- California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-3.5)Florida State Seminoles won
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-4.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.