Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6570687600d312e349ddd1df958cac36717b4e7f81e677979b951e7816d66d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25b7…bafdbacked No | 0c | 12,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…37a4backed No | 0c | 3,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc787…4702backed No | 1c | 3,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 1c | 3,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…e528backed No | 1c | 2,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 62c | 1,291$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.53 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 56c | 1,255$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.22 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 1c | 1,121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,103$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,031$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.6 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 47c | 784.48$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 9c | 599.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 40c | 517.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 57c | 484.89$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.72 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 318.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.14 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 73c | 232.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 49c | 193.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb041…23a7backed No | 60c | 168.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 33c | 167.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…9207backed No | 71c | 140.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed No | 61c | 132.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 29c | 124.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 64c | 104.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 66c | 101.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 61c | 94.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 44c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 38c | 79.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 41c | 72.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…505cbacked No | 45c | 61.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 59.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 57c | 51.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cb…4abfbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed No | 42c | 47.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 66c | 39.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…a046backed No | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 76c | 30.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…8b85backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.