Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7d5da233a5cc13426bc5ce0bb177ea42d78011fdfb38bd07ccf68f3e0e9a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 56c | 651.15$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.71 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 44c | 597.46$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 44c | 548.65$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.33 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 50c | 483.93$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 47c | 449$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 45c | 388.48$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 40c | 345$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 250.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 26c | 221.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 62c | 201.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 190.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 45c | 184.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 47c | 179.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 47c | 160.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 60c | 141.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 54c | 131.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 126.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 46c | 105.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 61c | 99.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…b498backed Yes | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 92.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 84.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed Yes | 48c | 82.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 40c | 78.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 39c | 76.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…8994backed Yes | 59c | 67.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 41c | 61.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 62c | 61.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 54.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 53c | 51.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 60c | 50.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4659…58e6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 40c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 42c | 42.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…7f50backed Yes | 56c | 41.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 39c | 39.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 38.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…6404backed Yes | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe260…6168backed Yes | 47c | 33.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 35c | 31.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…39c0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f09…0bcabacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…93ccbacked Yes | 62c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on November 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on November 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.