College Football · resolved market
UCF vs. Cincinnati
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6587f1af929fcc54d7a475f48ff60ec9b9cd7c74d16654ddda0255cd0f7673fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnatiof UCF, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Cincinnati | 77c | 15,826$12,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,589.99 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed UCF | 22c | 15,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cincinnati | 78c | 9,600$7,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked UCF | 22c | 7,449$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.39 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cincinnati | 78c | 5,400$4,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed UCF | 22c | 5,032$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked UCF | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed UCF | 23c | 4,353$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Cincinnati | 78c | 3,549$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cincinnati | 77c | 3,297$2,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.31 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked UCF | 21c | 3,183$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.49 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed UCF | 23c | 2,174$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati | 77c | 1,783$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati | 77c | 1,739$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.68 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…43d8backed Cincinnati | 79c | 1,728$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5a21backed UCF | 22c | 1,728$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked UCF | 23c | 1,100$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.4 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed UCF | 22c | 974.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cincinnati | 78c | 877$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked UCF | 16c | 875$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCF | 23c | 870.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati | 78c | 618.55$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cincinnati | 78c | 516$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…39e7backed Cincinnati | 79c | 301.27$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…e7f5backed UCF | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…9c77backed Cincinnati | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked UCF | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCF | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…303dbacked UCF | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cincinnati | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Cincinnati | 78c | 130.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Cincinnati | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed UCF | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Cincinnati | 71c | 112.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed UCF | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed UCF | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Cincinnati | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Cincinnati | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked UCF | 21c | 94.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed UCF | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cincinnati | 79c | 72.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cincinnati | 77c | 71.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Cincinnati | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed UCF | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Cincinnati | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Cincinnati | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Cincinnati | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e31…0117backed Cincinnati | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Cincinnati | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…2dd1backed Cincinnati | 79c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…e223backed Cincinnati | 79c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UCF vs. Cincinnatithis page
- O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati (-10.5)UCF won
- UCF vs. Cincinnati: O/U 54.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.