Tennis · resolved market
Hersonissos 2: Menelaos Efstathiou vs Toby Samuel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c4155e92a910774da15bab7c6f49e638b3aa44e9e69056326ffd020daa0e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toby Samuelof Menelaos Efstathiou, Toby Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 10c | 5,117$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.97 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…f9a8backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 20c | 4,549$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.8 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…1efcbacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 5c | 2,821$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 2,391$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 6c | 1,093$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 12c | 699.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 570$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 10c | 530.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 4c | 521.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 4c | 505.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 12c | 313.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 4c | 266.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…3addbacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 213.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 9c | 197$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 12c | 194.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 131 | 13.7%18 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 162.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e95…1cbebacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 8c | 151.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 21c | 135.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Menelaos Efstathiou | 16c | 106.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Menelaos Efstathiou | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toby Samuel | 75c | 79.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…717abacked Toby Samuel | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Toby Samuel | 77c | 61.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Toby Samuel | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toby Samuel | 78c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed Toby Samuel | 78c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Toby Samuel | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Toby Samuel | 79c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.