Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65c59f650ee64dc4d77bd0127a198fdc2f6b016fb07eff4f0a0dc1a80f935359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…15debacked Yes | 0c | 6,218$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 2,750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 4c | 2,645$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 1c | 1,906$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 1c | 1,636$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,078$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 464.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 8c | 440.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 9c | 419.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 353.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 13c | 291.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 233.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 10c | 230.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 7c | 226$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 9c | 165.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 164.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 162.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 147.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 139.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 129.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 126.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 14c | 114.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 11c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 12c | 96.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0a31backed Yes | 15c | 94.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.