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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,268

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa96a…1377backed No4c8,521$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed No1c5,179$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4442315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes42c994.82$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.454,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No2c894.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2571820.1%144 W · 574 L-47.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked No7c514.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes41c440.53$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.277823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No3c399.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.657544.7%257 W · 318 L+36.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes46c316$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x509f…d23abacked Yes76c279.39$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes42c273.33$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.94032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes68c245$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9727…8248backed Yes46c240.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No61c230.74$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.276755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c229.75$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No54c226.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.691967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No56c211.21$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9538840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…f431backed Yes50c198.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.74450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes49c177.19$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.781,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eee…1230backed Yes54c168.16$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No54c167.35$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.243,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3296backed No24c163$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1211129.7%33 W · 78 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6a…67d8backed Yes44c151.44$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes66c150.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5333058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes46c143.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6818041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes44c140.84$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.659429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes73c137.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7423231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c132.41$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.637,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes40c130$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781,02340.1%410 W · 613 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes36c125.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.011,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes46c118.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.74,01435.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L+41.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.529642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5510650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6123633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3586050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.198438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No55c91.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes50c91.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.581338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes45c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ed…6102backed No58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes52c85.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9115133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c83.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.281,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…5c16backed No30c79.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03bb…cb41backed Yes40c70.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.532030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9c…dd7dbacked Yes53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No54c69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2610055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…30d1backed Yes76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1176…57e1backed Yes47c63.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed Yes60c62.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.722259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes40c60.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.124833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No59c59.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes51c59.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes47c58.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.063625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes39c57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3966…bf35backed Yes46c56.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.771533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No56c56.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes48c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.568551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf43…644fbacked No57c51.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742528%7 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes46c49.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2726236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…bed8backed No56c49.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+58.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed No62c48.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes39c48.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes44c45.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.541330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc31…63a1backed No54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.233839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4411546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ba…1b5abacked No57c42.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes48c41.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.988535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No60c41.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0924966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe693…e18dbacked No60c41.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d16…851dbacked No48c41.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8c64backed No53c39.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21650%8 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No64c39.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ed…5cd7backed Yes47c36.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x514f…2be0backed No55c36.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.025151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No57c35.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes45c32.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.722326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes47c32.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No55c32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.58565.9%56 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes76c31.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.625839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3827…5455backed Yes42c31.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.055356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes55c30.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.581844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.872726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c29.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0212,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x9c03…9ef9backed Yes49c28.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc04…c446backed No52c27.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No54c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfc…46e8backed No55c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.886459.4%38 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec28…b341backed No56c26.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed No55c25.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.171838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed No52c25.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d84…2c45backed No60c24.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.943458.8%20 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes67c22.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.322254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b29…dc3abacked Yes52c22.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.434736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a993backed Yes50c20.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.