Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba9347b9ed9b93641547705b6de96d0c756c1d275e051cc0f13e90734c34aa27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 4c | 8,521$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 1c | 5,179$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 994.82$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.45 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 2c | 894.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 718 | 20.1%144 W · 574 L | -47.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 7c | 514.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 41c | 440.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.27 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 3c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 575 | 44.7%257 W · 318 L | +36.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 46c | 316$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 76c | 279.39$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 42c | 273.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 68c | 245$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9727…8248backed Yes | 46c | 240.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 61c | 230.74$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.27 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 229.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 54c | 226.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 56c | 211.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…f431backed Yes | 50c | 198.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 49c | 177.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…1230backed Yes | 54c | 168.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 167.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…67d8backed Yes | 44c | 151.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 66c | 150.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 46c | 143.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.68 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 44c | 140.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 73c | 137.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 132.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 125.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 118.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 55c | 91.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 50c | 91.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…6102backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 52c | 85.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 83.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…5c16backed No | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 40c | 70.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…dd7dbacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…57e1backed Yes | 47c | 63.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 60c | 62.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 40c | 60.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 51c | 59.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 47c | 58.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…bf35backed Yes | 46c | 56.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 56c | 56.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 57c | 51.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed No | 56c | 49.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed No | 62c | 48.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 39c | 48.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes | 44c | 45.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ba…1b5abacked No | 57c | 42.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 60c | 41.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…851dbacked No | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 53c | 39.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 39.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…5cd7backed Yes | 47c | 36.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 45c | 32.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 47c | 32.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 76c | 31.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 42c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…282fbacked Yes | 55c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 29.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c03…9ef9backed Yes | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…c446backed No | 52c | 27.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…b341backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed No | 55c | 25.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 52c | 25.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 60c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b29…dc3abacked Yes | 52c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a993backed Yes | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.