TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x509f…d23abacked Yes0c26,286$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.21650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03bb…cb41backed Yes0c6,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed Yes1c1,662$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2217949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d9…9397backed Yes3c1,050$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c785.45$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.571,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3427…4dd5backed Yes4c727.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No59c596.8$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2954143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes36c564.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.41330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes60c401.41$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5742315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c401.32$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.752,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c384.14$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.763,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes36c315.83$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0716036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes38c315.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No61c299.14$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No63c283.38$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.524966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes38c245.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.421,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes54c230.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3434651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dca…87d0backed Yes57c227.32$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9727…8248backed No44c226.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea0…f0dabacked Yes58c210$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes59c192.62$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.297823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes23c190$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2135843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes49c180.68$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.271838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No67c169.91$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.636674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1c…3853backed Yes60c166.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes45c165.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes41c149.95$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.961,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes9c147.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9523231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes37c134.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes37c130.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1418727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c130.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes12c129.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes30c129.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.481,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed Yes31c123.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.647936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No51c120.21$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x841d…0d0dbacked Yes62c103.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes31c99.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9929922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes41c99.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes52c95.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed No60c92.65$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7311044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eee…1230backed Yes39c90.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes40c89.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9827648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes32c88.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4851762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c86.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.097,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…a680backed Yes27c84.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.994429.5%13 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed Yes55c82.38$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c73.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked No69c72.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.758535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No69c72.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes41c69.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes40c68.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.241,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes28c68.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c67.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…e43ebacked No76c65.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4818060%108 W · 72 L-21.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes24c60.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4252245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes34c58.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes44c56.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes33c56.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes35c50.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.853625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3966…bf35backed Yes39c50.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc38c…fd95backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.971838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4211619.8%23 W · 93 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No49c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No60c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes48c49.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2412230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4eb…b2dabacked Yes41c47.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…0224backed No61c46.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No66c45.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.394080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed No76c43.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4615759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe1…6966backed No49c40.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.79560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed No75c40.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.071838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9c…dd7dbacked Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x766e…75f6backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1516518.2%30 W · 135 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes50c39.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x514f…2be0backed No51c39.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.215151%26 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked Yes48c39.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a90…abc9backed No61c38.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes38c37.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.177229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes40c37.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e90…6303backed No55c36.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a993backed Yes41c36.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a9…8a2cbacked Yes41c35.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes36c33.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.181,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78e…72d5backed No66c30.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.772726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked No79c29.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0222236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2938…cce8backed No58c28.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.024517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…69b8backed Yes39c27.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.