Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ccc9319c8df695e425e0ab4501776a7887abba8fa7382fc1cee3af08bf9036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 1,535$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.96 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 838.86$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.38 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 728.17$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 69c | 563.1$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 470$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 466.67$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 415.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 345.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 322.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9727…8248backed Yes | 29c | 311.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…2851backed Yes | 27c | 307$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 289.02$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 275.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 194.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 30c | 187.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 38c | 183.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 71c | 182.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 23c | 180.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 178.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 21c | 178.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 177.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 147.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 30c | 130.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 33c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…8a24backed Yes | 53c | 108.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes | 42c | 105.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 100.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 100.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 25c | 89.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 79.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…0551backed Yes | 35c | 78.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 66.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 56.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 33c | 55.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 46.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 46.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 43.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…b761backed Yes | 32c | 43.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…4a60backed No | 69c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 41.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…816dbacked No | 70c | 37.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 37.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…7ccbbacked Yes | 33c | 33.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…4ea7backed Yes | 35c | 31.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…760bbacked No | 69c | 31.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 71c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…9650backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 70c | 26.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 78c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…4238backed No | 76c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.