Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb85834a1972298c72784e8fc952520a60871b5bc8362bee30a2dedcfdfc44e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 0c | 36,700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 78c | 6,751$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.32 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…2851backed No | 78c | 3,125$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,177$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.65 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 2,019$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,530$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 9c | 971.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.63 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 709.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 44c | 631.71$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.67 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 48c | 523.21$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.03 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed No | 67c | 445.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 9c | 434.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.62 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 17c | 412.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.38 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 401.9$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 384.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 18c | 315.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 13c | 313.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 67c | 312.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 275.27$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 269.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 13c | 249.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.49 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 10c | 179.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 178.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 163.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 13c | 158.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 16c | 156.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 36c | 143.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 50c | 137.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 27c | 135.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 134.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 41c | 134.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 47c | 130.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 11c | 120.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…c4c5backed Yes | 42c | 119.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 28c | 114.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 112.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 110.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 10c | 109.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 107.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 107.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed Yes | 26c | 102.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 59c | 99.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 51c | 97.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 95.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 20c | 91.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 89.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 89.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 34c | 89.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…6ecfbacked Yes | 22c | 88.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 22c | 86.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 50c | 84.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 33c | 80.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…0551backed Yes | 21c | 80.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 24c | 79.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…625fbacked No | 58c | 73.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 24c | 68.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 28c | 62.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…2b6fbacked No | 60c | 62.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 61.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 25c | 60.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 53.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 53c | 47.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 46.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 65c | 45.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 49c | 45.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…1af9backed Yes | 49c | 43.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…9bb6backed No | 54c | 42.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 53c | 40.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…d852backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 64c | 38.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 27c | 38.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 39c | 36.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…9f28backed No | 53c | 36.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 74c | 35.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 34c | 35.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…881fbacked Yes | 50c | 34.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 59c | 34.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 55c | 34.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd904…e9b0backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.