Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde6c7ba738adf63fa36749f6c9620d12cf1736bd7964d294de44d7461dcc530d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 828.84$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.17 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 76c | 795.29$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.22 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 628.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 624.12$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 469.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 56c | 462.98$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 350.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 342.8$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 278.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 235.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f1…9c94backed Yes | 40c | 229$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 222.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 69c | 199.95$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 196.56$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 170.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa929…73e4backed Yes | 43c | 156.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…3c98backed Yes | 27c | 151.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 149.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 21c | 140.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…7e6ebacked Yes | 27c | 139.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 31c | 131.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 129.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 25c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 124.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…a27ebacked Yes | 31c | 117.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 75c | 112.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 76c | 104.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 99.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…ccf6backed Yes | 27c | 97.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 93.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 14c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 26c | 89.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…e2a4backed Yes | 32c | 86.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0072…c0bcbacked Yes | 29c | 85.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 21c | 82.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 35c | 82.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 81.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 19c | 80.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 80.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 80.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47d…e6a4backed Yes | 32c | 80.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 29c | 79.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…0551backed Yes | 32c | 78.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 77.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 22c | 71.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 76c | 69.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 59c | 68.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 66.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…13bebacked Yes | 27c | 66.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 39c | 63.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…76dbbacked Yes | 25c | 62.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 31c | 58.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 22c | 57.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked Yes | 44c | 56.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 31c | 55.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 74c | 55.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 44c | 54.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 52.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 69c | 50.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…187bbacked Yes | 28c | 50.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…d902backed No | 79c | 49.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebf…a29bbacked Yes | 31c | 48.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 31c | 46.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 44c | 45.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 35c | 43.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked Yes | 29c | 42.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 40.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…fa36backed Yes | 26c | 39.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 38c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 68c | 39.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 28c | 39.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 78c | 38.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…4238backed No | 80c | 38.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…f616backed Yes | 29c | 38.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 35.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…a695backed Yes | 35c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…7ccbbacked Yes | 32c | 33.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 38c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 58c | 30.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 71c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 21.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 59c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.