TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes18c1,151$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.334,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c744.93$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes64c631.63$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c451.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes21c416.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c378.17$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.832,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c334.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes13c292.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.61,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes11c273.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.491,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No58c272.43$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.147650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes10c266.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes16c242.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.563630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No7c230$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1733620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed Yes11c213.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.12653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes30c206.58$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3445127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6d…cf4abacked No35c201.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes10c198.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.089,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes77c190.13$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4412147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes12c175.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes12c172.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7331542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1246…9fbdbacked Yes55c164.35$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.95560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes20c149.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c143.72$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes10c141.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.91,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dab…e426backed No40c131.96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes24c126.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.393043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes15c124.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.328013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes21c123.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.156747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes10c118.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.912,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No50c111.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes14c109.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.391,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No55c109.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.631,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No13c107.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.134535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No57c105.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4924370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c105.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01cc…1f09backed No34c103.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes18c99.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9914637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c99.62$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.224,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes28c95.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes15c95.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8910444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a38…b4bebacked Yes66c88.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes21c86.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.768626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked Yes13c82.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.315756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes13c80$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.636123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes14c79.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8817838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes13c78.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7833535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes48c76.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9650648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes14c76.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2321440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes15c72.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes15c71.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.317445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes16c71.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5346743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c66.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes16c65.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.794436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes79c63.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.547021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes21c63.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6616550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No75c53.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.211,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes20c51.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3924046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes52c49.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7234067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes69c48.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2525037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No66c48.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.911257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed No75c44.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.895932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes35c42.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3116832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No66c39.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9213453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf882…a45abacked Yes39c37.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.051145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked No75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No77c30.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8610780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.035635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed No49c29.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.232138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes69c29.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0327463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No79c26.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.897777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked No73c26.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.188229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes47c24.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.943560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd85e…de9ebacked No67c20.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f7…45d5backed Yes62c19.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked No78c19.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No80c18.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked No77c16.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.057631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c15.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda99…322fbacked No73c15.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.169113.2%12 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.