TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes5c800$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c782.66$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.184,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a38…b4bebacked Yes17c552.73$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No61c549.79$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.417650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c492.66$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b4c…a073backed Yes21c477.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes44c445.58$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.373836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes8c393.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9321235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes12c280.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes41c261.3$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.843630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No61c260.1$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.012,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes4c242.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes38c242$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.944344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c214.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c211.39$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9e…6d32backed Yes36c204.64$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes51c198.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.027647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c191.65$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.527,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No62c178.21$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.371,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes38c172.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec0…3baabacked Yes17c168.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.122254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes44c166.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.474452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes7c162.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c162.19$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.341,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed Yes26c160.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.894535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes40c159.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.451,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes41c149.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes21c146$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9712337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes40c144.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.741631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No68c144.28$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.339333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No68c143.21$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc54d…72f8backed Yes14c118.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.051915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c0…a922backed Yes40c116.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c116.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.031,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes45c115.67$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5737644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes44c110.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.953043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes30c108.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.025,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c108.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No52c107.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3831542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c105.84$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes29c101.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.241,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No65c101.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.311,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes39c98.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.085736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes43c97.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9211249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes39c91.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8715558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes41c87.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.997445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes36c84.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes20c78.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed Yes36c78.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1611257.1%64 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No63c76.51$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.379344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No69c70.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.569277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes28c69.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.420835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2396…66d7backed Yes37c69.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No77c68.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.585981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c68.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.812,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes37c67.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.838536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes39c62.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2410141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No55c61.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes32c61.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.734436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes38c59.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes34c58.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7621440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked No57c58.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.277631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes34c57.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c57.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes25c56.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No62c56.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0710780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c56.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes32c55.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.846747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes34c55.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes39c54.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No65c52.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4323349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No65c52.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.131,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes36c49.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5641733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92dc…ae74backed Yes42c49.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed No57c49.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.088143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf1…c50abacked Yes40c48.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No63c48.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes40c48.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa25f…127bbacked No63c48.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes31c47.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4314833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes26c44.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.581,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No66c43.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9211874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes44c42.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8920750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No60c41.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.662846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes34c40.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.941010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked No56c40.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.734535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes33c39.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1926738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c5e…aa95backed No66c39.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.461450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No59c39.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes44c39.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.462425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c39.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.723,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed No63c39.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.497021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes33c38.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7417838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed No59c38.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.935932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…a265backed No62c38.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.811957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes35c38.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.375248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.