Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce108868cb3adaf1ba05715742bfb4c8a73946ee193ca4cd61af2e999c37617d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 782.66$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…b4bebacked Yes | 17c | 552.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 61c | 549.79$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.41 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 492.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4c…a073backed Yes | 21c | 477.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 44c | 445.58$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.37 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 8c | 393.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 12c | 280.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 41c | 261.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 61c | 260.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 4c | 242.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 38c | 242$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 214.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 211.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9e…6d32backed Yes | 36c | 204.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 51c | 198.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 191.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 178.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 172.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 17c | 168.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 44c | 166.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…19fabacked Yes | 7c | 162.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 162.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 26c | 160.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 159.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 21c | 146$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 40c | 144.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 68c | 144.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 68c | 143.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 14c | 118.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…a922backed Yes | 40c | 116.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 116.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 45c | 115.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 44c | 110.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 108.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 108.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 52c | 107.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 105.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 101.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 65c | 101.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 39c | 98.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 43c | 97.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 39c | 91.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 41c | 87.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 84.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 20c | 78.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 36c | 78.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 63c | 76.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 69c | 70.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 28c | 69.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…66d7backed Yes | 37c | 69.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 77c | 68.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 68.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 37c | 67.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 39c | 62.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 55c | 61.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 32c | 61.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 59.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 57c | 58.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 57.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 57.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 56.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 62c | 56.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 56.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 32c | 55.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 34c | 55.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 65c | 52.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 52.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 49.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed Yes | 42c | 49.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 57c | 49.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf1…c50abacked Yes | 40c | 48.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 48.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 40c | 48.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25f…127bbacked No | 63c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 31c | 47.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 44.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 66c | 43.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 42.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 60c | 41.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked No | 56c | 40.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 66c | 39.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 39.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 44c | 39.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 63c | 39.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 33c | 38.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 59c | 38.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 62c | 38.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 35c | 38.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.