TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,945 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x035a…ff68backed Yes13c1,124$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9231542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c592.68$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c575.81$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No76c562.71$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.485356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c484.2$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.241,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes24c430.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990e…cecfbacked Yes71c346.78$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.342568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c327.49$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes27c293.28$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.581,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes20c273.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.844,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Yes18c255.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.637650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes38c231.7$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c231.61$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.144,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c168.2$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No73c162.17$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.79277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes8c158.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2218316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c139.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.731,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced1…f456backed Yes33c130.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.292025%5 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No72c130.38$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1242469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No76c129.29$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7610569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes33c120.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1850648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes23c119.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.492,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c118.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Yes29c111.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.713043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes21c108.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c104.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c104.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.365,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes61c103.96$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…4dd2backed No67c101.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.782152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed Yes24c101.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.17129.6%21 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+82.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes40c99.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9511126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf66…0179backed Yes30c96.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.081729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes25c95.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c94.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes33c93.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.429344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed Yes38c93.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.439333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes47c89.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.875736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes28c87.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes19c84.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No67c78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.742,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No54c75.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.471,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec0…3baabacked No67c75.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.622254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes22c73.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9212337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c71.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.589,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b3…16a2backed Yes29c68.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.863630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes30c67.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.138536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfced…03d9backed Yes25c62.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5410141.6%42 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+82%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes59c62.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8525038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf21e…bcdbbacked No66c62.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb740…eabbbacked Yes20c61.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2723923.4%56 W · 183 L-17.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No78c60.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1410780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes19c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes47c59.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes25c58.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No39c57.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.978461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No45c56.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.744535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes32c56.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes34c54.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.688432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c79…8b16backed Yes29c50.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4464…b76dbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58626.7%23 W · 63 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No75c49.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4935168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes29c47.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7714833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes22c46.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2827732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c45.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…befcbacked Yes35c42.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a2…0201backed Yes30c41.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes26c38.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.127445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…e954backed Yes28c37.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked No68c37.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.114535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa78b…52f1backed No72c36.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No68c36.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.682846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes33c32.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6347136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No40c31.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6616740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.460236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No70c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes44c29.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8334067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No64c28.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2118878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes49c28.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.917647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes46c28.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9316634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No70c27.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.49361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba6e…e245backed No80c27.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.618676.7%66 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No74c26.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc54f…e34cbacked No70c26.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No70c25.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.577272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…5f98backed No63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.811471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No64c22.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No68c22.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.089436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No74c21.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.591,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No75c20.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.072,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.620866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b24…1586backed No73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.42653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked No73c19.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.