Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65dacbe8a0c565ee0918ed1df5593c723332c93178c7cac5f397ec459a55d08c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 55c | 31,175$17,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,984.54 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 16,623$7,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,488.09 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 13,307$5,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,669.85 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 64c | 3,100$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 45c | 2,818$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 59c | 2,117$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 973$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.69 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 763.69$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.17 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 572.5$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.9 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 293.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 39c | 248.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 39c | 218.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 186$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Over | 56c | 177.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 58c | 155.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Under | 45c | 131.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 48c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 45.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 37c | 33.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…c5f8backed Under | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 44c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…5cb6backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a49…a53bbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…04abbacked Over | 56c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.