MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e1c1a7ec6a68b02ce0d1d19621d5d2167ef0835764e49c64d6d8ad5fbbb69e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 6,522$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.41 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 78c | 3,716$2,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 79c | 1,132$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 531$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 324$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 14c | 297.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Athletics | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Athletics | 80c | 156.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 156$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Athletics | 80c | 145.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 17c | 122.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Boston Red Sox | 12c | 98.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 16c | 92.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Athletics | 78c | 69.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 23c | 64.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Athletics | 80c | 58.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Athletics | 80c | 58.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…8341backed Athletics | 80c | 57.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…0974backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 54.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 54.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 65c | 33.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Athletics | 78c | 28.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 75c | 22.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444d…a5fcbacked Athletics | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…9b40backed Athletics | 77c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.