MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc4041eee5716fc8f4db3959596a43a40f4560d7ed3cec091bb569b68ddefaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8201…8a41backed Athletics | 65c | 14,981$9,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,734.07 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 9,580$3,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,514.11 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 4,898$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Athletics | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 2,773$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.02 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 67c | 1,858$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 64c | 985.45$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.3 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 815.87$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 641$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 52c | 560$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 51c | 525.78$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 510$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 439.66$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 438.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 370.66$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Athletics | 59c | 339.92$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.71 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 337.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.07 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 320$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 289.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 243$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 223$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Athletics | 69c | 217.3$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 54c | 213.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 184$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 52c | 159.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 51c | 157.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 154.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Athletics | 75c | 153.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 138.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 136.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 129.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 109.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 102$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 81.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Athletics | 70c | 74.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics | 52c | 65.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 63.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 54c | 62.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Athletics | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Athletics | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Athletics | 72c | 51.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Athletics | 54c | 49.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Athletics | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 41.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 38.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 36.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Athletics | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 33.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Athletics | 75c | 30.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Athletics | 73c | 23.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Athletics | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Athletics | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Athletics | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Athletics | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Athletics | 73c | 16.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…f873backed Athletics | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.