MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a0138bac669514c47e663c30718c97d1c2849d35623436de9f855bdf5bc98a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Over | 53c | 6,938$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 17c | 5,449$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 47c | 5,175$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.75 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 4,926$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 48c | 4,170$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.4 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 2,507$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.64 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 1,006$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 12c | 1,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 16c | 970.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 51c | 800.22$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.11 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 50c | 749.99$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.75 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 715.62$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 628.6$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 49c | 554.82$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.64 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 552$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 54c | 505.18$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.45 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 50c | 496.58$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 48c | 485$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 425.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Over | 51c | 422.39$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 397.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.95 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 351.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 295$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 294.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 265.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 233$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 18c | 200.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 51c | 196.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Over | 53c | 178.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 157.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 49c | 148.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 51c | 147.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 51c | 137.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 74c | 134.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Under | 49c | 102.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 53c | 95.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 88.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 51c | 88.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 82.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 78.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 70c | 75.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…8341backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 76c | 48.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 47.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Under | 59c | 36.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 35.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 73c | 32.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…7192backed Under | 48c | 31.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 80c | 30.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 75c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 53c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 52c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.