Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660407c144d3fdf2226110292814af25ca96f331bf55397ccc3de345a7664735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,202 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 0c | 13,286$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 29c | 1,815$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.28 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 70c | 860.92$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 347.49$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed No | 78c | 342.56$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 287.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 275.23$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 26c | 247.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 242.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 224.22$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 28c | 213$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 152.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 147.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 111.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 110.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 33c | 109.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 78c | 100.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 99.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 91.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 89.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 83.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 32c | 78.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 76.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 66.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 74c | 64.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 64.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 63.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 55.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 52.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 72c | 52.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed No | 69c | 46.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 43.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 71c | 42.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 73c | 41.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 73c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 36.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed No | 60c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 68c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 72c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 73c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.