Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401d13184afffa01cfb33e4f41a43fb2e946dea68e6626c02d8d9a0a06c546c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8b9…33c2backed No | 0c | 4,275$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 3c | 2,350$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 53c | 1,267$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.36 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 14c | 997.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 821.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 5c | 598.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 13c | 567.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 45c | 466.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 50c | 459.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.79 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…5ec7backed No | 9c | 421$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 382.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 51c | 343.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 77c | 294.88$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 11c | 234.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 51c | 212.06$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 65c | 208.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 56c | 198.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 80c | 184.55$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 71c | 181.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 175.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 52c | 174.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 47c | 163.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked No | 41c | 157$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 155.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 11c | 150.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 38c | 145.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 139.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 39c | 139.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 129.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 59c | 129.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed No | 45c | 123.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 42c | 118.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 40c | 108.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…48e1backed No | 30c | 100.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 98.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6357…cbe5backed No | 26c | 96.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked Yes | 51c | 86.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 50c | 84.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 83.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 42c | 82.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 43c | 77.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 58c | 76.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 40c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 68.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 57c | 64.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 54c | 63.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 64c | 62.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 49c | 61.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 57c | 61.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 52c | 60.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 57.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…cc76backed No | 29c | 52.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 46c | 50.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked No | 41c | 49.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 47.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 57c | 47.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 72c | 45.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddac…71cebacked No | 50c | 44.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 59c | 40.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 54c | 39.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed Yes | 54c | 39.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 39.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 50c | 38.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 56c | 38.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 40c | 37.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 55c | 35.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 43c | 34.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 74c | 33.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 56c | 33.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 64c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 59c | 29.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 77c | 28.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 70c | 27.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…d583backed Yes | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.