Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660da7cdda693c1879194032da2ef40d0f4e68d2bda56a4d14dc1de81eb81fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 25c | 3,053$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 24c | 2,905$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 75c | 2,464$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed No | 74c | 2,053$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 1,811$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.3 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 31c | 1,615$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 25c | 481.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 76c | 467.11$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 24c | 454.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 29c | 417.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 70c | 322.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…6eb5backed Yes | 26c | 268.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 16c | 258.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 232.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 30c | 229.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 72c | 170$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 25c | 158.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 74c | 134.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 27c | 124.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 77c | 106.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked No | 76c | 80.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed No | 76c | 79.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 74c | 73.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…6853backed No | 76c | 70.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…5747backed No | 76c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 75c | 34.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.