Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25e081538bfb9567aaf8e01c565a9d9c27708dc7a4ac897b1e4046e21a73010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 2,787$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 1,713$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.62 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,096$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.37 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 268.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 61c | 180.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…7ee3backed Yes | 75c | 148.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 69c | 143.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 48.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-28?No won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.