Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8b70f9e0c45090cb79a882a4daaac55615d68fd5eb07b6328e5cfc3b406be55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 51c | 3,934$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 50c | 3,089$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.22 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 51c | 2,900$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.5 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 2,543$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 49c | 2,408$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.83 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 48c | 2,064$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460e…2efbbacked No | 51c | 1,828$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…c0c3backed Yes | 51c | 1,827$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…0272backed No | 51c | 1,740$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…6e75backed Yes | 51c | 1,739$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 51c | 1,454$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 1,150$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.3 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 52c | 1,144$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.84 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 49c | 632.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed Yes | 49c | 581.61$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 47c | 549.16$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 442.22$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 50c | 396.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 383.83$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 53c | 354.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 51c | 331.32$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 35c | 286.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 50c | 241$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 58c | 231$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 51c | 199.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 50c | 179.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 48c | 174.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 45c | 144.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 52c | 141$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 51c | 131.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 51c | 111.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +77%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…e8dabacked Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 50c | 69.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 49c | 67.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a12…1e5abacked Yes | 48c | 67.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…41c1backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 50c | 27.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…c7f6backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…7c33backed Yes | 49c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1700…54d9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…70fdbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…d496backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-28?No won
- Will Union Berlin vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.