Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6615aca4070dec597774219358e135b81f4dc068a030f1e861434b92521f0763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 652.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 245.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 114.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 11c | 112.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 108.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 105.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 54c | 84.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 334 | 46.4%155 W · 179 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 75.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 61.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 58.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 58c | 58.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 52.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 40c | 50.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 50.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 28c | 39.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 37.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 53c | 37.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 56c | 37.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 36.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 34.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 36c | 31.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…854abacked Yes | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 42c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 25.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 54c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 54c | 20.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 506 | 60.9%308 W · 198 L | -18.1wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.