Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b75c06a2d56950290def8e4f2c11a23d8e590a5ec69a1db86abfe2a2f903c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 341.81$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 323.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 287.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 190.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 187.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 159.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 145.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 137.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 129.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 75c | 108.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 36c | 101.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 92.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 87.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 57c | 84.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 81.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 79.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 61.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 75c | 60.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 58.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 70c | 52.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 52.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 71c | 52.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 37c | 50.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 48.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 48.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 46.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 76c | 46.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 45.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 54c | 45.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 44.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 31c | 40.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 38.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 61c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 34c | 29.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3932…854abacked No | 70c | 26.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…1533backed No | 79c | 26.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 58c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 19.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 77c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed No | 79c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.