Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6623d5f3e6ba48ca162c93f79ba9a14aef05e161e64754c16bc83c0305e1a810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb01b…aea9backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ae3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,518$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 377.81$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 319.68$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 272.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 255.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 230.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 210.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 24c | 207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 205.45$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 194.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 182.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 149.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 101.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 41c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 67.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 62c | 63.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 62c | 62.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 41c | 59.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…cc93backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 51.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 40.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 80c | 36.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 42c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 33.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 60c | 32.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 31.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 58c | 30.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 27.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 24.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 65c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 59c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.